The most incredible weekend of the season starts in a matter of hours.

So you’re sitting at home tonight, just slightly loaded on Old Crow while watching Craig Ferguson’s monologue, knowing damn well that tomorrow is Christmas day for college baseball freaks like us. Sweet dreams? Sleep tight?. Pfft, yeah right. Ain’t no way.

Before I get to the fun stuff, some more very necessary beating of a dead horse that deserves it.

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CROOKED? INCOMPETENT? MID-MAJORS PAY THE PRICE EITHER WAY.

It would be difficult to diminish the men’s NCAA baseball tournament any further, but the selection committee certainly tried to do that on Monday.

The members seemed to take their cue from college football’s Bowl Championship Series, whose philosophy is that anybody not in one of the huge conferences should get lost.

Just 11 months after Fresno State showed what the possibilities could be for all mid-major schools by winning the whole ball of wax against an SEC power, the selection committee all but eliminated at-large bids to northern mid-majors, denying championship teams like Rhode Island, Eastern Illinois, Missouri State and even San Jose State a chance to play in the Big Dance, while rewarding slovenly big-money programs for below-average seasons.

In essence, the committee has announced that Fresno’s Cinderella run to the national title, while it might have pleased the college baseball public to no end, isn’t what the NCAA wants at all.

What the committee wants, its actions tell us, is the college baseball equivalent of the football bowl season. That is to say a postseason for the biggest schools to hoard all the money and have all the exposure, which will lead to a greater recruiting advantage and more wins, no games on the road against mid-majors and continually higher seeding in the tournament (or a better bowl game). It’s the ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy, and an organization made up of institutions of higher learning ought not be so intellectually dishonest. But this is what we’ve come to expect from college football, and now increasingly college baseball.

There’s no acceptable reason that Baylor, having lost 12 of its final 14 games, should have been included in the field of 64 teams ahead of URI, which went on the road to beat teams like Miami, Oklahoma State, Ohio State and North Carolina State and had a full 23 wins on the road this season. You don’t even need stats sometimes; the eye test will tell anybody who watches games all season long that the Big 12 didn’t deserve eight bids.

But the most shocking, and disappointing facet of all is the fact that six of the ten members on the selection committee are from small-to-mid-major conferences to begin with. So how did this happen in the first place? To quote super-fan Bill Gessler, these guys were either corrupt or just plain incompetent. And if the mid-major teams can’t get equitable treatment with this committee, when will they?

Either way, I don’t get it. And I’m not sure if I ever will.

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A COUPLE OF SUGGESTIONS.
The furor has been palpable this week. And with good reason. So here are a few changes that should be made so we don’t experience this idiotic process again. Welcome to reasonable thinking, people…

1- First off, a “nanny cam” in the committee meetings.
And no, I’m not grinning while I type this.

2- Really now, a winning record in conference to get consideration for the at-large bids, that’s all we ask.
What? Does it make TOO MUCH sense?

3- Combine the use of different measures of strength.
From now on, the RPI, Boyd Nation’s ISR, Kenneth Massey’s ratings and a newly commissioned ratings system developed by Jerry Palm will all be given equal consideration. (Sorry Jerry, didn’t mean to give you more busy-work, but our sport needs it). The BCS has different computer rankings, why not baseball?

4- For at-large candidates, give more weight to a team’s best 20 games.
Even with just the RPI, I’ve been advocating this for years and it would’ve gotten URI and EIU into the tournament. It was the sad saps in conference and mid-week games that killed them.

5- Conference regular season champions get the automatic bids
I’m not saying the precious conference tournaments have to go away. No, feel free to keep playing these rag-arm-fests, just know that if you do, your winner merely gets a trophy, not the bid to the Big Dance. Sorry, I know I’m harsh, but it’s the smart thing to do.

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THE REGIONAL FIELD, HANDICAPPED BY SOMEONE FAR SMARTER THAN I.
Want to know who has the easiest Regional? Who has the best chance of winning this weekend? Who has the best percentage chance to win the national title? I always defer to the incredibly smart Boyd Nation. Here’s his look at the Regional field and their chances…

http://www.boydsworld.com/data/fieldprobs2009.html

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- Easiest Regional:
Cal State Fullerton.
Their chances of winning the regional at Goodwin field are the best of any host, at 89.2%.

Surprisingly, the second easiest Regional goes to Arizona State, at 88.6%. So other than Irvine’s tough-as-concrete field, the West was actually given two pretty big gifts here.

Oh and before you think UCI got such a difficult draw, realize that their chances of winning are a still-high 76.4%, or the 5th best chance of surviving this weekend.

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- Toughest Regional:
Louisville
Talk about balance, the Cards are given just a 47.3% chance of surviving this weekend on their home field.

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- No. 3 Seeds That Are Better Than The No. 2 Seeds:
According to Boyd, and probably common sense too, here are the No. 3 seeds that have a better chance of advancing than the No. 2 seeds in their Regional:

* Oregon State, over Texas A&M (In Ft. Worth)
* Cal Poly over Oral Roberts (in Tempe)
* Oklahoma State over Alabama (in Clemson)
* Gonzaga over Georgia Southern (in Fullerton)
* Baylor over Minnesota (in Baton Rouge)

Some of these aren’t real shocking. And if you look at it straight on, you’d have to say that the Big 12 undeserved ones actually grade out as better than their No. 2 seeds. But then again, these kind of rating systems never measure heart, desire and baseball I.Q., three things the Bears and Pokes didn’t play with much this season – except for OSU shortstop Tom Belza, who coach Frank Anderson told me was a “real throwback.”

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THEN AGAIN, I HAVE MY HUNCHES TOO.
Here are a few hither-and-yon picks… well, call them premonitions… that were rumbling through my pea brain here on Thursday night.

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- No. 4 Seed With The Best Chance At Pulling A Fresno State.
Indiana.
Granted, I feel like I have inside information on these guys after seeing them play last week in the Big 10 tournament. But it’s true. The one-two, righty-lefty punch of Eric Arnett and Matt Bashore project to be 1st and 3rd round draftees by Baseball America. And not only that, but the offense has been off the charts here in May, including scoring 47 runs in their four games in Columbus. It’s just a team playing with a lot of confidence right now and they also got a great draw in the Louisville Regional.

Chris Hervey and IU have been having a lot of fun lately.

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- Best Chances For No. 4 Seeds To Pull Opening Round Upsets.
Remember when the college baseball world had Bison Fever last year, after Bucknell shocked Florida State and Lipscomb stunned Georgia in their opening games? Well here are four more to watch on Friday.

* Indiana over Louisville.
I think I’ve talked about the Hoosiers enough.

* Bethune-Cookman over Florida.
Hiram Burgos (6-3, 3.73) is a senior with 88Ks in 72 innings and has more experience than the Gator weekend starters combined. And you DO recall that this team won a series at Miami two weeks ago, right?

* Wright State over TCU.
All the intangibles are there for an upset. A better-than-their-record snowbelt school with good pitching (Alex Kaminsky, 6-2/2.77, and Michael Schum, 13 saves, 1.68ERA) and the Horned Frogs looking all giddy and wide-eyed over hosting their first post-season regional.

* Sam Houston State over Rice.
If the Owls plan on saving Ryan Berry, just remember how many upsets Sam coach Mark Johnson has pulled off in his days in Huntsville. This could be real interesting, especially since the Bearkats already beat Rice this season. Hmmmm.

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- Best Chance For A 1-Seed To Go 0-2.
Louisville.
The Cards have the momentum of a 14-2 month of May and the experience of winning their way to Omaha before. But this regional is wide freakin’ open and very, very balanced. I’m not saying they WILL go 0-2, but if I had to venture a guess at who had the best chance to go deuces wild, it’s the UofL.

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OKAY, I’VE GOT THE BALLS TO DO THIS AND I’M WILLING TO SHOW THEM.
Yep, here are my picks for the Regionals. All 16 of them. I promise they’ll be dead-nuts on too. Or else I’ll ride a tricycle… eh, nevermind. Anyway, here’s how I see the weekend finishing, one-through-four for all 16 locations. Starting with the upper left of the bracket.

- AUSTIN REGIONAL
1- Texas
2- Boston College
3- Texas State
4- Army
Not a lot of intrigue here, the Horns don’t have a modicum of offense, but that’s not how Augie operates, as you know. Their pitching (2.84) and defense (.978) are best in the Big 12. The only thing that makes me pause for thought is that nagging voice that reminds me of the long lost “Augie Factor” the Longhorns used to have before this three year regionals drought.

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- FORT WORTH REGIONAL
1- Oregon State
2- Texas A&M
3- TCU
4- Wright State
Call this the inconsistency regional. All four teams (yes, I’m looking your way too WSU) had moments of shock and chagrin this year. The truth is, I want to put the Aggies down to win this regional so bad, but OSU is on a mission to make amends for last seasons’ snub and ready to rip heads off. But more than just about any other regional, it’s really anybody’s call.

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- ATLANTA REGIONAL
1- Georgia Tech
2- Elon
3- Georgia State
4- Southern Miss
I know, how can I pick Tech here? They’re on a 3-6 run to close the season, went just 13-13-1 against the best teams on their slate and the first game they play this weekend comes against a team that beat them 10-1 earlier in the year. Well, let me give this caveat, IF the Jackets win their first game against the Panthers, then they’ll advance to the Supers. If GSU rises up and shocks them, I’m not wild about Tech’s pitching depth and it’s anybody’s region… except Southern Miss, who doesn’t deserve to be here.

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- GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
1- Florida
2- Miami
3- Bethune-Cookman
4- Jacksonville
I’m sure I’ll be accused of having a grudge against the ACC, but the Hurricanes might’ve been an easy pick here considering their three-game sweep vs. Florida in Gainesville earlier this season. But the Gators young arms have grown up since then and they went 11-4 in home SEC games. Plus ever since I saw Miami get swept at North Carolina in April, the Canes own just a 10-10 record down the stretch. Revenge of the Alligators.

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- TEMPE REGIONAL
1- Arizona State
2- Cal Poly
3- Kent State
4- Oral Roberts
This one’s a no-brainer. Everybody wants to focus on the injury to Josh Spence (although he did throw 4.0 innings of 2-hit ball vs. UCLA in their last game), but this Devils staff is still plenty deep enough to get the job done on the three-game weekend. One thing to watch: If ASU saves Mike Leake for game two, KSU’s Brad Stillings will give ASU some fits in game one. Poly leaves the cool confines of their mountainous campus and hits the triple digits of Tempe. Talk about a pressure cooker.

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- CLEMSON REGIONAL
1- Clemson
2- Alabama
3- Tennessee Tech
4- Oklahoma State
CU can trot a lot of quality arms out to the mound. That deep staff should be able to pull them through. Gotta love the fact that they rarely beat themselves too, walking just 182 batters all year. Kent Matthes, the Tide’s home run crusher, will probably get his shots in, but the Tigers pitching will prevail. And yes, OSU is put 4th here as my act of defiance.

Frosh phenom Chris Dwyer has been a main cog in the Clemson arm corps.

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- GREENVILLE REGIONAL
1- South Carolina
2- East Carolina
3- George Mason
4- Binghamton
This is definitely the “Prove It” Regional. The Pirates have been pining for this. The Gamecocks coming to THEIR place and everything! But I’ve had my doubts about the Pirates ever since a pretty average UCLA team nearly swept them in the Pirate den back in March. And please try not to park beyond the outfield fence, the two faves here combined for 194 homers between them. Oh, before I move on, let me say this, GMU also has the “prove it” mantra since this will be their second game vs. a Top 50 team this season. Strap it up Patriots.

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- CHAPEL HILL
1- North Carolina
2- Kansas
3- Coastal Carolina
4- Dartmouth
Much like last year’s regional draw, Coach Fox’s mantra of “If we don’t make it to Omaha it’s our own fault.” I think there is some concern, as the Jayhawks have been road warriors in the month of May, with wins against Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas State away from Hogland Stadium. Plus, keep in mind that Coastal beat the Tarheels earlier this season, so there are some potential pitfalls. But really, I can’t imagine UNC not pulling this baby through.

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- FULLERTON REGIONAL
1- Cal State Fullerton
2- Gonzaga
3- Utah
4- Georgia Southern
The Travelocity gnome has to be giddy over THIS field of three far-flung travelers coming from far and wide. (Then again, I don’t know anybody who likes that stupid gnome in those commercials). The only concern here for the Titans is their youthful pitching staff not having the experience of post-season play under their belts. But this is where Dave Serrano builds his teams toughness too. Bon appetite Titans.

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- LOUISVILLE REGIONAL
1- Indiana
2- Louisville
3- Middle Tennessee
4- Vanderbilt
I’m not sure these people have any idea what they’re about to get into here. It wasn’t just that the Hoosiers won all four games in Columbus last week, but they beat the hell out of teams. And it’s not like two weeks ago when Louisville beat the stew out of Ohio State in two mid-week games, IU won against everybody’s best. Don’t be shocked. Then again, don’t be shocked if Mid-Tenn pulls the rug out from everyone else either. Only bummer about this regional is the fact that three mid-major teams are all lumped together.

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- TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL
1- Georgia
2- Florida State
3- Ohio State
4- Marist
The experience of UGa’s pitching staff is the main reason I like Dave Perno’s Dawgs here. I know this defies my normal logic here, with Georgia going 6-13 down the stretch in the regular season. But UGa played fairly well in the SEC tournament, beating Drew Pomeranz and getting a W with Brett Eibner starting. I also like the fact that Dean Weaver in the backside of that arms corps is a good insurance plan. FSU will crumble with youth and OSU won’t be able to out-score these teams after Wimmers makes his exit. Oh speaking of, don’t be shocked if Georgia starts this thing with a loss to the Bucks. It’ll get better from there.

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- NORMAN REGIONAL
1- Oklahoma
2- Washington State
3- Arkansas
4- Wichita State
This is the “Familiarity Breeds Contempt” Regional as all four teams have connections with the others, especially with OU, UofA and Wazzu all playing each other earlier this season. OU was 24-4 at home this year and love to pound people into oblivion (or as Mike Tyson would say, “into Bolivian”) with an offense that hits .322 and 87 dingers. The biggest key has been the emergence of stud ‘penner Ryan Duke (15 saves, 2.78ERA). The Razorback limp in with a 3-10 record in their last 13 and Wazzu has suffered enough injuries to keep those crooked execs at Blue Cross happy. Though if you twist my arm, they could pull a surprise or two here. Still, OU is my pick.

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- IRVINE REGIONAL
1- UC Irvine
2- San Diego State
3- Virginia
4- Fresno State
Yes, yes, we know, we know. Despite what the Boyd Nation’s and Tim Weiser’s of the world say, it’s still the toughest regional to the man with common sense. SDSU’s pitching is actually deeper than just Strasburg and that – along with the jet lag UVa will feel – is the reason the Aztecs will give Irvine a run for its money here. Watch for the possibility of Mr. GodBurg to get an early exit on Friday in hopes that he could come back on Sunday or Monday to extend the regional against UCI. And yes, don’t count out Fresno, as you ALL know, all you have to do is get hot at this time of year.

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- OXFORD REGIONAL
1- Mississippi
2- Missouri
3- Monmouth
4- Western Kentucky
For the second year in a row the Rebs and Tigers are matched up in the same regional. This time though, it’ll be played in front of 10,000+ rabid Rebel fans. Although they’ve been a tad cold lately, I still see the Rebels pulling through at home this weekend. But it won’t be easy and it won’t end anytime before Monday. By the way, also watch out for Ryan Buch of Monmouth in game one against Ole Miss. He’s got 87 Ks in 71 innings and should be a high-round draftee two weeks from now.

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- HOUSTON REGIONAL
1- Rice
2- San Houston State
3- Kansas State
4- Xavier
Ryan Berry is back to nearly his early season form? Fuggetaboutit. Although, you have to wonder if KSU head coach Brad Hill will hold All American A.J. Morris until game two and just hope to out-slug Xavier. If so, that Saturday game with the Owls becomes one of the best matchups of the weekend.

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- BATON ROUGE REGIONAL
1- LSU
2- Minnesota
3- Southern
4- Baylor
Sure, playing in Huntington Park last week in front of some big crowds will help with the wide-eyed factor for The U when it gets to Baton Rouge. But it can only help so much. A new dose of Alex Box Magic is about to be born. (Better save as much magic as you can for next week against Rice there Bayou Bengals.)

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Okay stitch-heads. Christmas Eve is winding down. So with no one stirring, not even a mouse, I’m going to hope to hit the hay soon. But the truth is, I’m too excited to sleep.

If I’m still awake at 4am, I’ll add more to this column. ’til then…

G’night.